Alternatives On Balance Volume (OBV)
The
on balance volume line does its job reasonably well, but
it has some shortcomings. For one thing, it assigns an
entire day's volume a plus or minus value. Suppose a
market closes up on the day by some minimal amount such
as one or two tics. Is it reasonable to assign all of
that day's activity a positive value? Or consider a
situation where the market spends most of the day on the
upside, but then closes slightly lower. Should all of
that day's volume be given a negative value? To resolve
these questions, technicians have experimented with many
variations of OBV in an attempt to discover the true
upside and downside volume.
One
variation is to give greater weight to those days where
the trend is the strongest. On an up day, for example,
the volume is multiplied by the amount of the price
gain. This technique still assigns positive and negative
values, but gives greater weight to those days with
greater price movement and reduces the impact of those
days where the actual price change is minimal.
There
are more sophisticated formulas that blend volume (and
open interest) with price action. James Sibbet's Demand
Index, for example, combines price and volume into a
leading market indicator. The Herrick Payoff Index uses
open interest to measure money flow.
It
should be noted that volume reporting in the stock
market is much more useful than in the futures markets.
Stock trading volume is reported immediately, while it
is reported a day late for futures. Levels of upside and
downside volume are also available for stocks, but not
in futures. The availability of volume data for stocks
on each price change during the day has facilitated an
even more advanced indicator called Money Flow,
developed by Laszlo Birinyi, Jr. This real-time version
of OBV tracks the level of volume on each price change
in order to determine if money is flowing into or out of
a stock. This sophisticated calculation, however,
requires a lot of computer power and isn't readily
available to most traders.
These
more sophisticated variations of OBV have basically the
same intent to determine whether the heavier volume is
taking place on the upside (bullish) or the downside
(bearish). Even with its simplicity, the OBV line still
does a pretty good job of tracking the volume flow in a
market-either in futures or stocks. And OBV is readily
available on most charting software. Most charting
packages even allow you to plot the OBV line right over
the price data for even easier comparison.