Free Online Intermarket Lessons
The Link Between Stocks and Futures: Intermarket
Analysis
The commodity futures world from the more
traditional world of stocks and bonds was already
starting to break down. Twenty years ago, commodities
referred to such things as corn, soybeans, porkbellies,
gold, and oil. These were traditional commodities that
could be grown, mined, or refined. Dramatic changes took
place from 1972 to 1982 with the introduction of futures
contracts on currencies, Treasury Bonds, and stock index
futures. The term "commodities" gave way to "futures"
since bonds and stocks were hardly commodities. But they
were futures contracts. Since then, the world of futures
trading has blended with that of traditional stocks and
bonds to the point that they can hardly be separated. As
a result, the technical analysis methods used to analyze
the different financial markets have become more
universally applied.
On
any given day, quotes are readily available for dollar
futures, bond futures, and stock index futures-and they
often move in sync with one another. The direction those
three markets move is often affected by what happens in
the commodity pits.
Program trading,
which occurs when the
price of the S&P 500 futures contract is out of line
with the S&P 500 cash index, is a day-to-day reality.
For those reasons, it seems clear that the more
understanding you have about the world of futures
trading, the more insight you will gain into the entire
financial marketplace.
It
has become clear that action in the futures markets can
have an important influence on the stock market itself.
Early warnings signs of inflation and interest rate
trends are usually spotted in the futures pits first,
which often determine the direction stock prices will
take at any given time. Trends in the dollar tell us a
lot about the strength or weakness of the American
economy, which also has a major impact on corporate
earnings and the valuation of stock prices. But the
linkage goes even deeper than that. The stock market is
divided into sectors and industry groups. Rotation into
and out of those groups is often dictated by action in
futures. With the tremendous growth in mutual funds, and
sector funds in particular, the ability to capitalize on
sector rotation into winning groups and out of losing
ones has become much simpler.
Inter-market analysis as it deals with the interplay
between currencies, commodities, bonds, and stocks. Our
primary message is how closely the four markets are
linked. We'll show how to use the futures markets in the
process of sector and industry group rotation within the
stock market itself.